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ONS subnational population projections (2016)

24 May 2018

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published the subnational population projections today. The data is based on the 2016 mid-year population estimates. They are published every two years and this latest release supersedes the 2014 projections.


Subnational population projections are not forecasts. They do not attempt to predict the impact of future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors that may influence demographic behaviour. The 2016-based subnational population projections provide statistics on the potential future size and age structure of the population in England at region, county, local authority, clinical commissioning group and NHS England region levels. They will also be used in the production of the 2016-based household projections for local authorities, to be published in September 2018.


The ONS subnational population projections bulletin highlights a number of points:

- The populations of all regions in England are projected to grow by 2026; regions in the North of England are projected to grow at a slower rate than those in the South.

- London is projected to be the fastest growing region; the North East is projected to have the slowest rate of growth.

- Nearly all local authorities are projected to grow by mid-2026; the populations of just 15 local authorities are projected to fall.

- The number of people in older age groups is projected to grow faster than those in younger age groups in all but five local authorities; by mid-2026, a total of 97 local authorities are projected to have a population where at least one-quarter of the population is aged 65 and over.

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